Market Analysis: Genting Berhad

I had meant to post this up a long while ago.

A month or two ago, speculation began that Genting may buy-out MGM's stake in MGM Grand Macau. This was sparked by the New Jersey Gaming Commission telling MGM to "disengage itself from business association" with their joint venture partner Pansy Ho, the daughter of infamous Stanley Ho. The NJGC apparently recommended that Pansy Ho to be "unsuitable".

Just so we all know, Mr Ho has alleged links with triads in the region. Now, don't get me wrong, this is all "alleged". Nothing solid has ever materialised.

Genting was, and is still, in a very strong financial position despite minor YoY earnings declines for the quarter. As of today, it is still the only gaming company in the world with a strong and fairly positive balance sheet. Genting Berhand and its subsidiary Genting Malaysia Berhad (formerly known as Resorts World Bhd) together hold nearly 5 billion ringgit cash in the war chest (USD 1.4 B). The most likely (or rather, the ONLY) candidate in any buy-out offer for MGM's Macau holding.

Further compounding this speculation was the purchase of MGM debt (bonds) - USD 50M by Genting Bhd (GENT) and USD 50M by Genting Malaysia (GENM). This was further supplemented by a purchase of an addition USD 100M in MGM stock. Let me explain - the MGM debt is a good deal in a business that Genting is most familiar with. The bonds were secured against rock solid MGM assets with 50% paying annual interest of of 10.375 per cent, due in May 2014. The rest carry a rate of 11.125 per cent and maturing in November 2017. Definitely better than leaving it in a bank. The further USD 100M in MGM stock is also a fantastic deal - at USD 7 per share, that's a steal! They are affectively buying at the bottom.

I do not believe that Genting will purchase MGM's Macau holdings. The reason for this is Singapore. Just after Genting Singapore Plc (GENS) won the Sentosa development, RWB subsidiary Star Cruises announced a deal with Stanley Ho for a Macau development. Singapore issued a warning: GENT was to disengage from any business dealings with Stanley Ho. GENS may have got the Sentosa development but the casino license would only be issued on the project completion and launch. The deal with Mr Ho was quietly swept under a carpet somewhere.

Any attempt to do business with Pansy Ho will incur similar consequences. The sins of the father... or so they say. It is quite inconceivable that Singapore would want anything to do with with the daughter either. The idea that Genting would jeapordize their massive SGD 6B (USD 4B) investment in Sentosa just does not compute.

[Image courtesy of Reuters: symbol GENT.KL]

At the time of my thinking this, GENT was trading at RM 5.30 or so. Today (28-Jul-09, day close) it is trading at RM 6.70. Gosh, what a big jump. And just 5 months ago we were buying at RM 3.80.

So what's in store for GENT stock? In my view, its a clear buy. Market sentiment is bullish overall, bouyed by less than awful results in the US. I expect the price to drop tomorrow (29-07-09) on negative sentiment off Wall Street and pending the earnings results from Europe - I'm calling a target low tomorrow within RM 6.20 - 6.30 but the day-end should be above that. If Wall Street ends in positive territory today, we may actually see GENT touch RM 7.00.

What's in store for the future? Well, this stock is definitely a buy Buy BUY! Buy low (as if you could now) because this is pretty much guaranteed. Market sentiment affects notwithstanding, we have a very clear uptick on the horizon - the opening of Resorts World Sentosa. That's good for a 5-10% rise on the stock at any price, at any time.

Earnings from power, plantation and property have already come in with good results overall. All publicly traded subs are doing well. Barring a sudden and catastrophic fall in the commodities market or drastic legislation changes affecting power tarrifs or an airplane crashing into Genting Highlands Resorts, the overall sentiment for Genting is just UP! (in capitals and with an apostrophe no less)

Please call your friendly remisiers and brokers to either take your profits now, or leave buying instructions within the RM 6.20 - 6.50 band and sell at RM 7.00 (good til at least 14-August). I expect negative market corrections coming off US and Japan in the next few days.

Or you may contact me to use my remisier.

29-Jul-2009

: GENT.KL Open:6.68, Low:6.30, Close:6.40 (-4.19%)

: DJIA closes -0.29%

30-Jul-2009

: expect KLCI to close downwards due to carry over market sentiments from DJIA and Shanghai - this is just about guaranteed as there have been no local upward affects.

: I expect GENT.KL to close around -2%, we may see it close at RM 6.00 - 6.10 by weekend